Gambling in a poker tournament i.e, taking big chances in marginal situations is not advisable in general, but, now and again there is a place for gambling and in this free online poker article you’ll learn when, why and how. The question of when to gamble is easy to answer. The time is in the knockout stages, when you need to get rid of opponents as in the example below.
This hand was shown on the Flop. (Pot 980k)
FLOP: 5c-8d-10s
A has J-10, moves all-in 1.235m (Pot 2.215m)
B has J-9, to call 1.235m
A is short stacked but has a top pair and might double up. B has a Straight draw. It doesn’t matter whether A has a Set, an overpair or just a pair, say, top pair (like A’s J-10) or even just an Eight. B can win if he hits his Straight (and if A doesn’t have a Set, which A doesn’t have right now, which can readily turn to a Full House; A needs running cards to hit a Full House) but he is just getting 1.79-to-1 on a call, which is too small.
Fair odds are going to be 2.33-to-1, which signifies that B’s potential for winning is only 30% (other outs may be folded already by other players). If B knew that A had top pair, should he call? (Of course, A may be bluffing, but even if A had A-K, B will still be an underdog.)
Pot odds may offer information, but will it offer enough resolution for B to make the tough call? Suppose, now, we add that (a) B is below the chip average in the tournament and (b) this call is for 1/3 of B’s stack. We might should also suppose that this is the best hand that B has obtained after numerous hands, and B is blinding out dangerously. Can this stiffen B’s resolve to make the call? In tournaments, an intricate balance between survival and accumulating chips is paramount.
B can survive by folding, but he could miss out the opportunities that a bigger stack could have. Bigger stacks can call shorter stacks who move all-in. Bigger stacks can steal blinds more often. He can also move above chip average. But if B misses his draw, he will be awfully short-stacked and will be more readily called if he decides to move all-in with hazardous hands, like A-J that is an underdog against a better Ace or a pocket pair.
The question, now, is this: Does B consider the difference between 1.79-to-1 and 2.33-to-1 a worthwile price to pay to be able to obtain some of the potential opportnities a big stack can have? On a pot of 2,215,000, if B needs 1,235,000 to call he gets 1.79-to-1. But for B to call with fair odds on a pot of 2,215,000, he is supposed to put only 30% of 2,215,000, which is 664,500.
There’s a difference of 570,500 chips. We could transform the actual scenario to a mathematically equivalent question: Would B be willing to forgo an extra 570,500, theoretically, in order to enjoy the privileges of a big stack, as well as to avoid the dangers of a short-stack? Even in free online poker this would be a hard decision, with money on the table even more so.
With the problem mathematically remodeled, the response now depends upon B’s character. Is he conservative generally? Then he can fold and wait for better hands. He may not be able to psychologically recover if he loses the hand, and might play less attentively later. But it turns out that B is a willing gambler, therefore:
B calls 1.235m (Pot 3.45m)
And then he does make the call! Not a favorite, but this is also a chance to knock out a great player.
TURN: 5c-8d-10s-2d
But, not quite yet. B has one more opportunity to try to knock out A.
RIVER: 5c-8d-10s-2d-7h
And he makes it! His gamble pays off! But such grand decisions should be made only after huge considerations. If B had a bigger stack (above chip average), he should fold because he might waste away his chips on poor odds and might turn a comfortable stack into a shaky one.
Although if B had an even bigger stack – close to chip leader – he might call, because it will be just a small blow to his chips. If B had nearly equal or lesser chips than A, B cannot call if he knows A had the top pair because he is the one pushed all-in, and if you are pushed all-in, beware; your opponent might have a monster and is impatient to put you out of the tournament. But in this example B made the consideration and based on what he knew made the call and was correct, and like B even if you only play free poker be careful and think before you make gambling moves.
